Is 2012 the Right Time to Buy?

This is the number one question to ask each individual buyer, seller, and real estate professional we meet in 2012. What drives residential sales is the deep down belief that now is the best time to purchase a home verses “let’s wait and see where this goes.”  There is no perfect time to buy, but let’s look at some of the reasons people are buying or waiting in the year 2012.

In a recent survey by the National Association of Realtors, 33% of home buyers say that they want help understanding financing in 2012. It is no secret that financing is a huge issue today and for 2012. We could argue that financing got us where we are today, but financing could get us out. There is no question that interest rates are at an all time low, and according to some they may continue to stay low.

However, the issue remains the number of buyers who are not qualifying for “conventional” financing.  In New Hampshire, during the first 11 months of the year 2011, just under 40% of home buyers used conventional financing. Compare this to the same time period in 2007 when over 75% of home buyers were using conventional. The gap in lending is being filled in The Granite State by cash (33%) and lending programs such as FHA and Rural Development (23%). This is tracking nationally with the National Association of Realtors saying that in the year 2011, 30% of all house closings were cash transactions. We forecast that lending will continue to be a leading issue in the year to come, with home buyers being creative on how to obtain long term stable debt options.

Valuation is going to be a key in 2012. Home prices have come down in some towns in Southern NH by close to $100 a foot from their all time highs in 2006 and 2007. More so there is inconsistency from town to town and even within towns as to where prices are going. Nationally the recent Case-Shiller index of 20 cities showed that prices have declined nationwide by 3.4% year over year, for the month of October. But much like the weather, real estate is local; in New Hampshire we can look at that same period and say that the total volume of homes sold is up just fewer than 3% with much of that made up by the fact that October saw a 13% spike in the number of homes sold over the previous year. We believe this trend will continue, more homes selling in 2012, with little movement in the overall value of the prices.

What about subjective reasons for buying? Ones that don’t fit into boxes? A Gallop Poll showed 67% of Americans think that now is a ‘good time’ to buy a home. Donald Trump was quoted saying:  “This is a great time to buy a house.” Consumer confidence is implied to be up with Forbes reporting that holiday shopping was up 4.7% over 2010. But home sales are not created by polls or by what consumers purchase around the holidays. 

Ultimately people in New Hampshire shall have to decide for themselves based upon what they are seeing in their personal situations. Our team has seen an increase in volume, closing out the fourth quarter of 2011. With the trends above noted, we see 2012 as a year of increased confidence with increase in volume of sales – And, we look forward to it!

Our Season of Giving

This year our offices chose to contribute to the Toys for Tots campaign and the Soup Kitchen. We are pleased to announce that both campaigns were a great success.  We collected and donated close to 300 new toys to the Toys for Tots and 7 boxes of food to the Nashua Soup Kitchen.  But our campaigns would not have been such a success if not for the generosity of the people who would stop by the office and donate food and toys to these charities.  At a time when the economy is not at its best and many people are struggling to provide for their own families, many will always find a way to give whatever they can so that those less fortunate can also enjoy the holidays.

What we need to remember is that these charities need our assistance year round and not just during the holidays. 

Campaign Coordinators conduct an array of activities throughout the year, which include golf tournaments, foot races, bicycle races, bike rides and other purely voluntary events designed to increase interest in Toys for Tots, and concurrently generate toy and monetary donations.

Like many soup kitchens, lines start forming early in the morning.  For the first time in over 30 years the Nashua Soup kitchen has served more than 250 dinners in one evening, 5 times a week. This does not include the families and individuals who receive non perishable foods each week.

Donors make all the difference in the lives of the men, women and families who depend on these charities. Your generosity not only helps to provide meals and toys, but also hope to those who are less fortunate.

We thank you for your help in support and best for a wonderful New Year.

Giving Back

This Holiday Season, Real Living |The Norwood Group Manager, Thom Nofsinger, office administrator, Sheri Cameron and Realtors, Beth Curran, Donna Giniusz, Tina Latvis, Stella Demetri, and Ann Frigard decided to “adopt a family”. We contacted The Nashua Pastoral Care Center who gave us a family with 3 children.

We had a great time shopping, wrapping and organizing the gifts. It truly is better to give than to receive. We feel that giving back to the community is a small part of what it takes to make Nashua such a wonderful place to call HOME. We all wish you and yours a wonderful holiday season and a healthy happy New Year!

Nashua Pastoral Care – Changing Lives…One Family at a Time, is a non-profit organization that assists families at risk of homelessness with the basic necessities of life such as rent, utilities, food, transportation and medicine. Their mission is to offer support and provide services to assist individuals and families transition from crisis to self-sufficiency. The “adopt-a-family” Holiday Program has been a part of the Nashua Pastoral Care Programs since it became incorporated in 1987. In 1996, NPCC became a designated administrator of the Telegraph Santa Fund.

Food Bank Donations



Amherst Office Donations



As we prepare for the holidays many of us look forward to family gatherings when we all come together and sit down to our favorite family holiday dishes. Whether it is grandma’s cookies or mom’s wonderful turkey dinner with all the trimmings, if you were to ask people, what is your favorite part of the holidays; many would respond all the delicious food.

Unfortunately there are many people who will not have the traditional holiday dinner or those yummy Christmas treats.  When the economy is down and so many people are out of work and struggling to make ends meet their thoughts are on the simple items such as a loaf of bread, or a can of soup whatever it takes to feed themselves and or their families.

This is why it is so important to contribute to the local food banks and soup kitchens in your community.   Many of these local charities feeds men, women and children in your community —Many of these people are the working poor, elderly, homeless and disabled living on fixed income.

Individuals and families receive non-perishable food each week, like many soup kitchens, lines start forming early in the morning.  

Nashua Office Donations

What we need to remember is that these donations are needed year round, not just during the holidays.  Donors make all the difference in the lives of the men, women and families who depends on their local soup kitchen and food banks.  Your generosity helps provide meals and hope to those who are less fortunate.

Real Living | The Norwood Group is pleased to be a small part of the momentum to help local food banks throughout this holiday season. If you cannot drop items off at a local kitchen or food bank, please stop by our Amherst or Nashua offices with some non perishable goods and we will deliver them to the local food banks.  

150 Broad Street, Nashua, NH

46 Route 101A, Amherst, NH

We appreciate your support.

Help Us In Our "Toys for Tots" Drive



As the holidays approach you cannot help but notice the excitement in every child’s eyes.  Whether you are watching TV, walking through the malls or shopping in the stores it is all around you, the decorations, the holiday music, Santa Claus how can you not get caught up in the holiday spirit. 

But what you do not see are the eyes of the children who have just been told that Santa won’t be coming this year or the parents who are struggling to make ends meet and are worried that they may not be able to put gifts under the tree for their children.

This is why great charities like the “Toys for Tots” program are so important.  The United States Marine Corp created this program with a mission “to deliver a new toy at Christmas, giving a message of hope to the less fortunate youngsters that will assist them in becoming responsible, productive, patriotic citizens and to help them experience the joy of Christmas as well as play an active role in the development of one of our nation’s most valuable resources….our children”.

Although the United States Marine Corp and their volunteers do a terrific job they cannot do it alone.  This is why it is so important for people to help in any way they can.

A small gift or volunteering a couple of hours of your time will help this wonderful charity and most importantly put a smile on a young child’s face Christmas morning.

Real Living | The Norwood Group is going to be a donation site for Toys for Tots this season. If you would like to bring an unwrapped gift, please stop by either our Amherst or Nashua offices. For more information on Toys for Tots, please visit www.toysfortots.org.

Our Drop off Locations Are:

46 Route 101A

Amherst, NH

150 Broad Street

Nashua, NH

The True Story Behind the New Hampshire Foreclosure Market

One may think after reading the newspapers or turning to your favorite national news syndication that the housing market is like the cowardly lion walking through Oz, frightened of his own shadow. However in looking through the numbers in New Hampshire we have found things not to be as alarming as one may think. To begin with, lets look at how most national models look at foreclosure data. Most of them source foreclosures as the number of foreclosure notices  per total housing units. In August of this year RealtyTrac reported that 1 in every 570 housing units had a foreclosure filing.  This, as you will see, is a flawed argument.

To begin with, a notice does not a foreclosure make. While many homes are given notice that they are going to be foreclosed upon, the reality is that in New Hampshire over the past 24 months less than 60% of those homes actaally get foreclosed upon. While notices may be a harbinger of what is to come, it must be discounted down because some homes end up selling short, or the lender and home owner work something out. In short we believe  the total number of properties actually foreclosed upon is what should be tracked.

The second misdirection that the national media uses is that they use the total housing inventory for a state, rather than the number of total deed transfers. We feel it is better to look at what has been foreclosed upon against the total number of transfers, rather than the housing inventory. While the numbers may sound worse when done in this fashion, we think it is a more fair indicator because it pegs against what else is going on in the market such as normal warranty and quitclaim deed transfers.

Consider the chart below. The red idicates the actual number of foreclosres in the state of  New Hampshire (not notices). While the blue indicates the percentage of foreclosure deed transfers divided by the total number of transfers (Quitclaim, Warranty and Foreclosure) over that same period in the state.

You can tell that over the last few years The Granite State has remained fairly flat on both foreclosures and foreclosure percentage. There is seasonal fluctuation but within reason. One can even note that in the last four quarters, with the exception of the 2^nd quarter of this year, there is a drop in foreclosures that goes beyond seasonality.   For points of reference in 2010 there were 4,007 total foreclosures in the state with a rate of 16.26%. In the last large real estate recession in 1991, we had 5,244 foreclosures and a rate of 19.68%.

Times are tough out there, don’t get us wrong. Foreclosures are not going away tomorrow. However New Hampshire is doing much better than the rest of the nation and we even see trends for improvement. So don’t always believe the man behind the curtain, sometimes the Wizard is just not what you expect him to be.

New Hampshire Housing in the 3rd Quarter… Where do we stand?

Every night when you turn on the six o’clock news you can hear the “ding, ding, ding” of the closing bell of the New York Stock Exchange. While you make your dinner and glare at the instability, the people on the screen are clapping courteously as if they are on the 18^th green at Augusta.  In case you did not get the update on your phone, the six o’clock news is your daily snapshot of your investment portfolio. Housing is not nearly as transparent. For the largest investment most people make in their lives we do not have a chance to look into the lens and understand it on a daily basis. So here is our closing bell, glove claps not included.

In October, the National Association of Realtors released some national statistics, which cited that the total number of existing home sales nationwide for September 2011 was 11% greater than September of 2010. In taking a look at a sampling of Southern New Hampshire towns (Amherst, Bedford, Goffstown, Hollis, Hooksett, Hudson, Manchester, Merrimack, Milford, Mount Vernon and Nashua), we found that upward trend to be the same that in September 2011 there were 18% more homes sold than 2010.

In looking at the graph for the last few years we can trend the number of homes sold in the above mentioned towns for the first nine months of each year. Blue represents 2009, Red 2010 and Green 2011.



Home Sales in Target Towns 2009 through 2011 by Month



In looking at July, August and September, it appears that there is an upward trend in terms of the total number of homes sold. Skeptics or statisticians (aren’t they one and the same?) may say that three months is too small of a sample size to say there is an upward trend, but our team of professionals believes this trend to be real, “People who have been on the sidelines are now seeing a time to jump in.” noted Thom Nofsinger, manager of the Nashua office.

But beyond the numbers there is still a suppression of sales price. In our target markets listed above, median sales price in September have declined 5% over the same month last year. Why is that? “There are buyers out there,” noted Deirdre Hewett of the Real Living The Norwood Group team in Amherst, “but they are cautious. They are not going to put in an offer unless they see a long term value in the home.”

What does all of this mean for the balance of 2011 and into 2012? Hewett noted that, “…there is activity in markets that I am tracking. Properties that are priced right will find buyers who are active.” For buyers and sellers out there, don’t watch the news, follow the stock market or read the national blogs… know that here in The Granite State, we are following the national upward trend of units sold. In addition, like the national picture our pricing has slightly declined.  But beyond the numbers there is demand for home buyers looking for that next purchase.

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